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2014考研英语阅读题源15篇

1. Inching towards integration 朝着一体化缓慢爬行

【导读】：欧洲领导人做出了救市的承诺，但也仅限承诺。欧元区走在成功或失败的分岔路口，未来如何还是个未知数。

The Euro Crisis 欧债危机

The latest European summit made more progress than usual—but still not enough

最新欧洲峰会取得了比平常更多成果——但仍是不够。

Jul 7th 2012 | from the print edition

W AS Europe’s 19th crisis summit, held in Brussels on June 28th and 29th, a game-changer? Judging by the euphoria in financial markets and among many commentators, the answer seems to be yes. Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds fell sharply as investo rs decided that Europe’s political leaders had committed themselves to the creation of a banking union and to allowing troubled countries easier access to euro-zone rescue funds. The prime ministers of Italy and Spain, Mario Monti and Mariano Rajoy, and the French president, Fran?ois Hollande, were widely hailed for scoring a victory over Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel. She, in turn, was excoriated by many at home for giving in to blackmail.

As so often, the summit had been billed as a make-or-brea k affair, in which Europe’s political leaders had to lay out their vision for economic and political integration to save their single currency. Is the euphoria about to fizzle, as in the past?

The summit gave reasons for guarded optimism. Europe’s poli ticians have said they will create a Europe-wide bank supervisor (involving the European Central Bank) before the end of the year. This is only a pledge, but if the history of European policymaking is a guide, the euro zone will quarrel over the details of a banking supervisor only to agree to one eventually. Second, by accepting that bail-out funds can go straight to banks, Mrs Merkel has made a big shift from her insistence that help could go only to governments, with tough conditions attached. The underlying German logic that shared financial liability must imply shared oversight remains the same. But by countenancing jointly financed bank recapitalisation, Mrs Merkel has accepted a broader notion of risk-sharing. This is still a long way from the partial debt mutualisation that the euro zone needs, but it marks a step forward from Germany’s exclusive obsession with fiscal austerity.

However, there are caveats. Europe’s politicians did not commit themselves to a banking union. There was no agreement to euro-wide deposit insurance or to a common bank-resolution scheme. And although the summit agreed that euro-zone rescue funds could be injected directly into banks, this depends on the single supervisor being in place first.

The supposed loosening of the strings attached to help for peripheral economies was also limited. The much-ballyhooed agreement that rescue funds could buy embattled countries’ bonds without onerous extra conditions was just a political promise to do something already allowed. The only concrete new commitments were that the promised aid of up to €100 billion ($125 billion) for Spain to recapitalise its banks would no longer be senior to other debt, and that Ireland could expect the burden of its bank bail-outs to be eased.

A set of limited and contingent promises is much better than nothing, but it hardly adds up to a sturdy new foundation for the euro’s future. A lot could still go wrong. In a system that requires unanimity, grumbling from Finland and the Netherlands is a reminder that even if the limited deal at the summit holds, further steps will be hard. Legal challenges have already been laid before Germany’s constitutional court. Mrs Merkel’s coalition partners and even some in her own party are threatening to be obstructive. And existing problems have not gone away: most obviously, hard decisions still have to be made about whether to give more help to Greece, which barely featured in the summit’s discussions.

The summer-holiday-saving summit?

暑假救援行动峰会？

It is therefore a brave soul who would call this summit a turning-point for the euro. Given that agreeing on a banking authority will take several months, think how remote are the more fundamental constitutional changes needed to back a banking union and Eurobonds. The outlook for the European and world economy is darkening. Recession will undermine normal politics and create conditions for markets to take fright (see article). The euro zone got through this summit, but it is going to have to prove its resolve over and over again.

参考译文：

第19届欧洲危机峰会于6月28、29在布鲁塞尔举办，这将成为拯救欧元区危机的一次大逆转吗？从金融市场以及时事评论员的乐观情绪来看，这个答案似乎是肯定的。由于投资

者认定欧洲领导人们已经承诺建立银行业联盟，并使发生危机的国家更易得到欧元区救援资金，意大利及西班牙国债收益率大幅度下跌。意大利首相马里奥?蒙蒂（Mario Monti）及西班牙首相马里亚诺?拉霍伊（Mariano Rajoy），法国总统弗朗索瓦?奥朗德（Francois Hollande）共同战胜了德国总理安吉拉?默克尔（Angela Merkel），人们为此欢呼。相反在国内，默克尔因为向―勒索敲诈‖妥协受到广泛而严厉的责难。

一如既往，欧盟峰会被视为成败的关键，在此峰会上欧洲领导人们不得不通过构想经济与政治一体化来拯救他们的单一货币。就像以前一样，人们的希望又会扑空吗？

人们对峰会有理由保持谨慎的乐观。欧洲政治家们表示他们将在今年内构建欧盟范围的银行业监管（欧洲中央银行也参与其中）。但这仅仅只是一句承诺，但如果欧洲决策制定的历史可以对现实有指导意义的话，欧元区领导人将在银行业监管的细节问题上争论不休，直到最终达成完全一致。其次，默克尔做出了重大的转变，从她一贯坚持只能在附加严苛的条件下援助政府，到接受援助基金直接发放给银行。德国认为共同承担金融责任意味着需要一致的监管，这个根本逻辑并没有改变。但是支持共同注资给银行进行资本重组，表示默克尔总理接受了更宽泛的风险共担的观点。虽然距离欧元区需要的部分债务共担还有很长的路要走，但却标志着德国已从专一地痴迷财政紧缩中向前迈出了一步。

然而警示依然存在。欧洲政治家并没有致力于构建银行业联盟，还未就欧元区范围的存款保险或共同的银行解体机制达成共识。而且尽管欧洲峰会同意欧元区救助基金可以直接注入银行，但前提是统一监管能够执行。

所谓的附加条件的放松来帮助外围经济体也是有限的。有人称可以用救援基金来购买受困国家的债券而无需繁琐的附加条件，这项被大肆宣扬的协议，不过是对已经允许的事项所做的一种政治承诺罢了。唯一实在的新的承诺是，为帮助西班牙银行资产重组而承诺的高达1000亿欧元（1250亿美元）的救助资金不再比其他债务等级更高，而饱受银行纾困折磨的爱尔兰有望减轻自己的负担。

虽然一系列有限、有条件的承诺比什么也没有好得多，但也难以为欧元区的未来打下新的坚实基础。许多环节也可能走错。在一个需要全体一致的体系下，芬兰和荷兰的抱怨声提醒着即使峰会达成了有限的协定，未来的脚步也很艰难。德国宪法法院已经面临一系列法律上的挑战，默克尔总理的政治联盟伙伴中甚至她自己党内的一些人正存在阻碍的威胁。现有的麻烦也还没有解决：最明显地是要做一个艰难的决定，是否要给希腊更多帮助的，而这在峰会的讨论上很少提及。

由此看来，将这次峰会视为欧元区的转折点的人是多么大胆。鉴于在银行业当局的问题

上达成一致需要好几个月，为银行业联盟和欧元债券做后盾的更为基础的体制上的调整简直是遥不可及。欧洲甚至全球的经济前景日渐黯淡。经济衰退会破坏正常的政治活动，制造市场的恐慌（见另文）。欧元区顺利举行了峰会，但是它需要一次又一次地证明自己的决心。

2. No beating about the bush 不绕弯子

America’s best-known geographer shows what there is to learn from early man

美国最为知名的地理学家认为我们应该向早期人类学习

Jan 5th 2013 | from the print edition

The World Until Yesterday: What Can We Learn from Traditional Societies?

《昨日世界：传统社会有何借鉴之处？》

1 JARED DIAMOND has made a name for himself explaining why some societies do well and others do not. In ―Guns, Germs and Steel‖, his 1997 bestseller, he brushed asid e the arrogant view that ascribed Europe’s dominance to human biology, stressing instead the continent’s environmental advantages, notably its native wheat and barley and its easily domesticated animals. He followed this up eight years later with ―Collapse‖, another exhaustive study, this time about how certain societies caused their own demise by ruining the environs that sustained them. Read together, these are civilisation-scale books about survival.

2 But they cover only a small portion of the human story. In his new book Mr Diamond, a geographer at UCLA, points out that life on this scale is a recent phenomenon. For most of history human beings lived in small groups as hunter-gatherers. Agriculture began 11,000 years ago; state government not even half as recently.But Mr Diamond, who has spent years studying in the jungles of Papua New Guinea and learning from local tribes people, argues that mankind retains important links to its distant past and can still learn a thing or two from traditional societies.

3 Mr Diamond writes, for example, that most societies have held on to some form of religion as a way of maintaining social order, comforting the anxious and teaching political obedience. Tribal societies in New Guinea rarely, if ever, fight over religious matters. These societies also tend to be more multilingual, helpful for diplomacy perhaps, and as it turns out, also a way of protecting against Alzheimer’s. There are 1,000 different languages in New Guinea alone.

Traditional societies resolve disputes by making do entirely without the state. In stark contrast to the American criminal-justice system, the leopard-skin-draped chief of Sudan’s Nuer people has no role in settling disputes but works to facilitate mediation and calculate traditional forms of compensation.

4 Other things have changed, not all of them for the better. The gluttonous industrialised world could benefit from a more Palaeolithic diet. Traditional societies have hardly a trace of the West’s main non-communicable diseases, such as heart attacks, strokes, diabetes and many forms of cancer—the hallmarks of a diet rich in salt and saturated fat.

Thanks to a cuisine of mainly low-sodium bananas, Brazil’s Yanomamo Indians consume only 50 milligrams of salt a day. One Big Mac w ould give them a month’s worth. Tribespeople who adopt a sedentary lifestyle and eat processed food show a sharp increase in the same diseases that afflict Westerners. A third of urbanised Australian aboriginals suffer from type-2 diabetes, and among the W anigela in Port Moresby, New Guinea’s modern capital city, the figure is closer to 40%.

5 Mr Diamond is at his most impressed when it comes to tribal family life. He writes of missionary children who prefer the playgroups of traditional societies that bring together children of different ages to the solitary fixation on video games that are common back home. Raising children is a communal affair in which the elderly are deeply involved, unlike what happens in most Western countries. He cites studies that show that an African Aka pygmy infant, for example, is looked after by at least seven people and babies in the Efe tribe by as many as 14.

At the same time, he writes, children in traditional households seem to enjoy more autonomy. In the Kalahari the !Kung do not resort to physical punishment; instead children are allowed to slap and insult their parents. And New Guinea Highlander children are encouraged to play with knives and with fire, precisely so that they are able to learn from their mistakes.

6 In all this, the author’s argument is not that we should abandon our modern way of life—he certainly has not—nor does he romanticise traditional people as earth-loving peaceniks. A tribal life can, after all, be nasty and brutish. Few people live past the age of 50, mostly because of curable diseases. For the !Kung, infanticide has been permitted in order to preserve resources in lean times. Bolivia’s Siriono Indians abandoned their elderly once they became a burden. North American Crow Indians encouraged them to commit suicide. Tribal warfare may kill far fewer

than 21st-century mechanised versions, but there is still a constant fear of raids and revenge killings. And a higher percentage of the population dies fighting.

7 Nor is subsistence living for the faint- hearted. Shortages can mean starvation. Taro, a tropical-root vegetable, is the staple food of the Kaulong people of New Britain, an island off Papua New Guinea. But in the dry season they are forced to scour the forest for insects, snails and unpalatable plants. Toxic wild nuts must be soaked in water for days to leach out the poison.

8 Mr Diamond’s book is mostly a fascinating survey of a rapidly fading world. Only when it tries to pose as a handbook for tribal living does it fall flat. Comparing traditional strategies for maximising crop yields with modern ways of managing financial investments is more banal than original. Our forebears have been around for a lot longer than we have; learning how they did so should be lesson enough.

参考译文：

贾雷德?戴蒙德（Jared Diamond）因为分析了一些社会运行良好一些社会难以为继的原因而名声大噪。他执笔的《枪炮、病菌与钢铁》是1997年的畅销书。书中，他对―欧洲社会之所以运行良好，是因为其主导了人类生物学领域‖ 这一自负论断不屑一顾，在他看来，欧洲大陆的昌盛是因为欧洲优越的环境特别适合种植小麦、大麦以及饲养家畜。八年后，他奉献了耗时良久的又一力作--《崩溃:社会如何选择成败兴亡》。书中主要内容是介绍一些人类社会是如何毁掉自己赖以生存的周遭环境，进而导致自己灭亡的。两本书都是文明层面上有关人类生存的书籍。

不过，这两本书中写到的只是人类故事的冰山一角。现任教于美国加州洛杉矶分校地理学系的贾雷德.戴蒙德（Jared Diamond）在他的新书中写到人类今天以这种模式生存只是近代才有的一种现象。在历史的大部分时期，人们一直以类似于狩猎者一样聚居的方式生存，毕竟人类开始从事农业生产的历史也才11,000多年，国家政府也是在近代5500多年前才出现。戴蒙德教授花了八年时间呆在巴布亚新几内亚的丛林里，研究当地的部落居民，得出了这样的结论：人类仍旧与遥远的过去保持着重要的联系，传统社会有很多事情值得我们借鉴。

比如，戴蒙德教授在书中就这样写到：大部分人类社会都保留了某种宗教形式，用于维持社会治安、安抚社会急躁情绪、维持政治统治。不过，新几内亚的部落居民却从未因为宗教事务发生过冲突。这些原始的部落使用的语言不止一种，或许这样有助于人们交往。事实上证明，使用多种语言也是防治老年痴呆症的好方法。单单在新几内亚就有1000多种

语言。传统社会一般在没有国家机器的状态下，就能解决所有冲突。与美国刑事司法系统截然不同的是，苏丹身穿豹纹皮的努尔部落首领没有权力解决纠纷，但是可以采用传统的计算方法核算补偿，从中进行调停。

很多事情已经改变，但是并不尽如人意。生活在贪婪的工业社会的人们可以多学学旧石器时代的饮食习惯，相信会受益良多。生活在传统社会的人，几乎没人得过类似于心脏病、中风、糖尿病和多种癌症等困扰西方人的常见非传染疾病。这些疾病是食用含盐量高和脂肪饱和食物的有力证明。

多亏了食用含钠较低的香蕉，巴西的雅诺玛莫印度人一天食盐摄入量只有仅仅50毫克。一个大苹果，就能让他们大快朵颐。那些习惯了长时间坐着工作、食用加工食品生活方式的部落居民，患上那些困扰西方人疾病的几率聚居上升。生活在城里的澳大利亚原住民，有三分之一患上了Ⅱ型糖尿病。生活在巴布亚新几内亚的现代化首都摩尔贝斯港的Wanigela（没查找）人，患该类糖尿病的比例将近40%。

最让戴蒙德教授印象深刻的是部落的家庭生活。他书中写到，比起一回到家一律死盯着电动游戏的孩子相比，传教士的孩子更喜欢在传统社会的操场上玩，在那里，不同年纪的孩子能在一起嬉闹追逐。与大部分西方国家不同的是，在部落家庭里，抚养孩子是集体的事情，老人是这个过程中绝对的主角。有研究显示，非洲地区的阿卡俾格米矮人族的婴儿由至少7人照顾，埃菲社里的婴儿至少由14个人照顾。他书中就引用了这项研究。

同时，他还写到，传统家庭长大的孩子似乎想要更多的自主性。喀拉哈沙漠the！Kung （查不着）人种不会体罚孩子，相反允许孩子侮辱、打骂家长。为了让孩子可以从错误中切身地汲取教训，新几内亚的高地人鼓励孩子玩火，耍刀。

作者这么写，不是说人们应该放弃现代生活方式，他也没有这层意思。他也没有把传统社会生活的人们美化成和平分子。毕竟，部落里的生活是不文明而且残酷的。部落里的人很少有活过50的，大部分死于可以治疗的疾病。在the！kung 民族里，收成不好的时节，为了节省资源，人们可以屠杀婴儿。玻利维亚的西瑞诺娜民族会遗弃拖累族群的老人。北美的客如印第安人鼓励孩子杀人。部落争斗中丧生的人大大少于21世纪机械化战争中死亡的人数，但是部落居民一直都有遭受突袭、仇杀之类的担忧。部落人口中很大一部分死于部落斗争。

书中，他也没有说胆小鬼有生存的可能。物资短缺可意味着要挨饿。巴布亚新几内亚群岛附近的一座名为新英格兰的岛生活着卡隆民族，他们的主食就是热带根茎蔬菜芋头。但是一到旱季，他们就得去森林捉昆虫，蜗牛以及不怎么美味的植物充饥。他们还会把有毒的

野生坚果浸在水里数日，溶解毒性后食用。

很大程度上来说，戴蒙德教授的新书是对快速消亡世界的一次引人入胜的探寻。如果把这本书当成部落生活的手册，那么这本书就完全算不上好书。把最大程度上提高收成的传统方法与现代金融投资管理方式相比是一种没有创意而且很迂腐的行为。我们的祖先先于我们存在很久，弄明白他们是如何做到这一点就足够我们学一辈子的了。

3. Addiction：Crazy for it上瘾：为之疯狂

Jun 2nd 2012 | from the print edition

OBESE, porn-crazed, bingeing, gambling, pill-popping and fiddling incessantly with gadgets, modern humanity faces temptations that it is ill equipped to resist. Damian Thompson, a British journalist who stopped drinking after 14 years of alcoholism, has produced an entertaining and informative account of what he depicts as an epidemic of addiction.

His main message is that addicts are not suffering from a disease. In fact, he argues, addictive behaviour is essentially voluntary: disordered brain chemistry may influence addicts to make bad choices, but they are still choices. Environment heightens temptation too: he cites the epidemic of heroin addiction among American troops in the Vietnam war. The soldiers mostly ditched their habit when they returned home. Modern over-indulgers in food, drink and other goodies are in the same pickle as soldiers on the battlefield, he argues: ―disorientated, fearful, and relentlessly tempted by fixes that promise to make reality more bearable.‖

Mr Thompson leaves no room for smugness. Everyone is potentially at risk from addiction, not just ―coke-snorting hedge-fund managers, bulimic receptionists and absent fathers glued to World of Warcraft‖. He sees no difference in principle between the high of illegal drugs, the sugar rush of cupcakes and the blinking red light on a BlackBerry that signals a new message. All involve the replacement of real relationships and real people with surrogates. Whether these are events, processes, objects or consumable substances (or a mixture) depends on the person concerned. He reserves particular scorn for the abuse of medicines that supposedly act on the brain, from the Ritalin habitually doled out to lively children to the Modafinil and Adderall munched by students seeking an advantage over their peers.

The book—written in a waspish style that belies its depth—pays particular attention to brain chemistry. One set of mental circuits tells people to consume as much as possible: food here today may be gone tomorrow. Other more sophisticated parts allow them to restrain themselves. Modern life, argues Mr Thompson, is overwhelming the clever bits and overstimulating the more primitive functions that encourage overindulgence. Dopamine—the neurotransmitter associated with desire—plays an important role: Mr Thompson terms it the ―master-drug‖. It helps people to go on craving things that no longer give them pleasure.

Businesses target such weaknesses, using food technology to concoct confections of fat, salt and sugar. Computer-game designers test their products to make them unputdownable: the line between online gaming and online gambling, he argues, is increasingly blurred. As Mr Thompson points out, who would have guessed 40 years ago that a piece of office equipment (a personal computer) would beguile people into sacrificing their health and welfare to play with it? The limits of acceptable behaviour are shifting too: wine glasses get bigger, porn gets harder.

In short, both the need to manipulate feelings and the ability to do so have grown colossally. Innovation produces cheap, strong, unhealthy fixes closely allied to what were once enjoyable pursuits linked with desirable evolutionary goals (nutrition, socialising and reproduction). Now they fire people up long after their biological needs are satisfied. Conditioned by evolution to seek pleasure where we find it, we are now in an environment that ―bombards us with rewards that our bodies don’t need and that do nothing to ensure our survival as a species‖.

Countering that, he argues, will require people to restore the vigilance that their hunter-gatherer ancestors once displayed towards lethal risks. But do they want to?

参考译文：

肥胖,porn-crazed、暴食、赌博、滥用药物和不停地摆弄小产品,现代人类面临的诱惑,它是装备不良的抵制。达米安·汤普森,一位英国记者停止饮酒后14年的酗酒,创作了一部娱乐性和知识性的解释来说明他描述为一个流行的瘾。

他的主要信息是,瘾君子不是患有一种疾病。事实上,他认为,上瘾行为本质上是自愿的:混乱可能影响大脑化学吸毒的人做出了糟糕的选择,但他们仍然选择。环境也加剧了诱惑:他引用了流行的海洛因成瘾在美国军队在越南战争。士兵们大多是抛弃了他们的习惯,当他们回到家。现代over-indulgers在食品、饮料和其它食物都是在相同的腌菜是士兵在战场上,他

说:―恐惧和迷惑,无情地引诱修复保证使现实更容易忍受。‖

汤普森没有地方可以做沾沾自喜。每个人都是潜在的危险成瘾,而不只是―coke-snorting 接待和对冲基金经理、暴食症没有父亲粘在魔兽世界‖。他认为没有原则上的区别的高峰之间的非法药物,糖份的纸杯蛋糕和闪烁的红灯了黑莓,预示着一个新消息。所有涉及替代真实的人际关系,与代理人的真实的人。不管这些活动、流程、物体或可消费的物质(或混合)取决于相关的人。他特别对滥用储备蔑视的药品,据说在大脑行为,从利他林习惯性地分发给活泼的孩子到莫达非尼和Adderall嚼着由学生寻求优势超过同行。

在一个尖锐的book-written风格,掩盖了它的depth-pays特别注意大脑化学物质。一组心理电路告诉人们尽可能地消费:今天在这里的食物可能明天就没了。其他更复杂的部件允许他们克制自己。现代生活中,汤普森先生认为,是压倒性的聪明的比特和过度刺激更原始的函数,鼓励过度放纵。Dopamine-the神经递质desire-plays相关的一个重要的角色:汤普森称其―master-drug‖。它能帮助人们去渴望的事情,不再给他们带来快乐。

企业目标这样的弱点,使用食品技术来捏造的甜点脂肪、盐和糖。电脑游戏设计师测试他们的产品,以使他们unputdownable:之间的界线,网络游戏和在线赌博,他辩称,越来越模糊。正如汤普森指出,谁能猜得到40年前,一块办公设备(个人电脑)会引诱人们牺牲自己的健康和福利玩吗?可接受行为的限制也正在改变:酒杯变大,色情变得更加困难。

简而言之,都需要操作的情感和能力这么做的已经保密。创新生产出了廉价的,强大的,健康的修复密切结盟曾经享受的追求与理想的进化的目标(营养、社交和繁殖)。现在他们火人早已结束的生物需要得到满足。受制于进化寻求快乐,在那里我们找到它,我们现在是在一个环境"侵袭了我们全身"奖励,我们的身体并不需要,什么也不做,确保我们作为一个物种生存下来‖。

反击,称,他认为,将要求人们恢复警觉,他们的狩猎采集祖先曾显示在致命的风险。但他们想吗?

4. The American economy Comeback kid 美国经济东山再起

【导读】：俗话说，欠下的都是要还的。连续透支消费，高风险投机等欲望最终导致危机发生。遭受经济危机重创的美国，现仍处于元气恢复之中。不过危机之中亦有机遇，如谷歌，Facebook和苹果创造的App经济在国内外大放异彩；美元走软的同时降低了贸易逆差；居高不下的油价孕育了利用―压裂法‖提取页岩气公司的出现等等，都预示着美国经济的灵活性

之高。那，总统应该做什么呢？请看下文

America’s economy is once again reinventing itself

美国经济要再次脱胎换骨

Jul 14th 2012 | from the print edition

ALMOST the only thing on which Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, his Republican challenger, agree is that the economy is in a bad way. Unemployment is stuck above 8% and growth probably slipped below an annualised 2% in the first half of this year. Ahead lie the threats of a euro break-up, a slowdown in China and the ―fiscal cliff‖, a withering year-end combination of tax increases and spending cuts. Mr Obama and Mr Romney disagree only on what would make things worse: re-electing a left-wing president who has regulated to death a private sector he neither likes nor understands; or swapping him for a rapacious private-equity man bent on enriching the very people who caused the mess.

America’s economy is certainly in a tender state. But the pessimism of the presidential slanging-match misses something vital. Led by its inventive private sector, the economy is remaking itself (see article). Old weaknesses are being remedied and new strengths discovered, with an agility that has much to teach stagnant Europe and dirigiste Asia.

Balance your imbalances

都是要还的

America’s sluggishness stems above all from pre-crisis excesses and the misshapen economy they created. Until 2008 growth relied too heavily on consumer spending and house-buying, both of them financed by foreign savings channelled through an undercapitalised financial system. Household debt, already nearly 100% of income in 2000, reached 133% in 2007. Recoveries from debt-driven busts always take years, as households and banks repair their balance-sheets.

Nonetheless, in the past three years that repair has proceeded fast. America’s houses are now among the world’s most underv alued: 19% below fair value, according to our house-price index. And because the Treasury and other regulators, unlike their euro-zone counterparts, chose to confront the rot in their financial system quickly, American banks have had to write off debts and raise equity faster than their peers. (Citigroup alone has flushed through some $143 billion of loan losses; no euro-zone bank has set aside more than $30 billion.) American capital ratios are among

the world’s highest. And consumers have cut back, too: d ebts are now 114% of income.

New strengths have also been found. One is a more dynamic export sector. The weaker dollar helps explain why the trade deficit has shrunk from 6% of GDP in 2006 to about 4% today. But other, more permanent, shifts—especially the growth of a consuming class in emerging markets—augur well. On the campaign trail, both parties attack China as a currency-fiddling, rule-breaking supplier of cheap imports (see Lexington). But a richer China has become the third-largest market for Ameri ca’s exports, up 53% since 2007.

And American exporters are changing. Some of the products—Boeing jets, Microsoft software and Hollywood films—are familiar. But there is a boom, too, in high-value services (architecture, engineering and finance) and a growing ―app economy‖, nurtured by Facebook, Apple and Google, which employs more than 300,000 people; its games, virtual merchandise and so on sell effortlessly across borders. Constrained by weakness at home and in Europe, even small companies are seeking a toehold in emerging markets. American manufacturers are recapturing some markets once lost to imports, and pioneering new processes such as 3D printing.

Meanwhile, what was once an Achilles heel is becoming a competitive advantage. America has paid dearly for its addiction to imported oil. Whenever West Texas Intermediate climbs above $100 per barrel (as it did in 2008, last year and again this year), growth suffers. But high prices have had an effect, restraining demand and stimulating supply. Net imports of oil this year are on track to be the lowest since 1995, and America should eventually become a net exporter of gas.

Many countries have shale gas, but, as it did with the internet revolution, America leads in exploiting it (see our special report this week). Federal money helped finance development of the ―fracking‖technology that makes shale gas accessible, just as it paid for the internet’s precursors. However its use was commercialised by a Texas wildcatter called George Mitchell, the sort of risk-taker America has in abundance. In Europe shale gas has been locked in by green rules and limited property rights. In America shale has already lowered consumers’ energy bills and, by displacing coal, carbon emissions. In future, it will give a spur to the domestic manufacture of anything needing large amounts of energy.

America’s work-out is not finished. Even when the results are more visible, it will leave many problems unsolved. Because the companies leading the process are so productive, they pay high wages but do not employ many people. They may thus do little to reduce unemployment,

while aggravating inequality. Yet this is still a more balanced and sustainable basis for growth than what America had before—and a far better platform for prosperity than unreformed, elderly Europe.

Of cliffs, and other perils

财政悬崖与其他险情

What should the next president do to generate muscle in this new economy? First, do no harm. Not driving the economy over the fiscal cliff would be a start: instead, settle on a credible long-term deficit plan that includes both tax rises and cuts to entitlement programmes. There are other madnesses brewing. Some Democrats want to restrict exports of natural gas to hold down the price for domestic consumers—a brilliant strategy to discourage domestic investment and production. A braver Mr Obama would expedite approval of gas exports. For his part, Mr Romney should back off his promise to brand China a currency manipulator, an invitation to a trade war.

Second, the next p resident should fix America’s ramshackle public services. Even the most productive start-ups cannot help an economy held back by dilapidated roads, the world’s most expensive health system, underachieving union-dominated schools and a Byzantine immigration system that deprives companies of the world’s best talent. Focus on those things, Mr Obama and Mr Romney, and you will be surprised what America’s private sector can do for itself.

‖Fiscal cliff‖ is the popular shorthand term used to describe the conu ndrum that the U.S. government will face at the end of 2012. U.S. lawmakers have a choice: they can either let current policy go into effect at the beginning of 2013 –which features a number of tax increases and spending cuts that are expected to weigh heavily on growth and possibly drive the economy back into a recession – or cancel some or all of the scheduled tax increases and spending cuts, which would add to the deficit and increase the odds that the United States could face a crisis similar to that which is occurring in Europe.

参考译文：

美国经济很糟糕，或许这是奥巴马和罗姆尼（美国共和党总统候选人）唯一能达成共识的地方了。比如，徘徊在8%之上的失业率居高不下，估计连今年上半年的经济也保不住2%的年化增长率。摆在美国面前的除了欧元区解体的威胁与中国经济增速放缓，还有国内的―财政悬崖‖——年末增加税收与削减开支的共同作用将可能导致经济萎缩。而到底什么会让经济变得更糟，这是唯一一个让他们吵得不可开交的话题：是让左倾总统奥巴马连任还是换上

罗姆尼执掌？前者不喜欢也不理解私营部门并限制其发展，后者作为贪婪的私营部门的代表，致力于为极少数导致此次危机的人谋福利。

眼下的美国经济的确十分脆弱，但弥漫在总统竞选口水战中的悲观情绪却让人们忽略了一些极其重要的东西。在其极富创造力的私营部门带领下，整个美国经济都在经历脱胎换骨的过程（另见文）。美国一边整改着经济系统薄弱之处，一边发掘新的经济增长点。这个过程十分灵活，大有值得经济停滞的欧洲和统制经济的亚洲学习之处。

谈到美国经济停滞的原因，这完全是由危机前的无度透支和由之造成的畸形经济做下的孽。2008年之前美国经济过度依赖消费和房地产市场，其资金均源于国外储蓄，而这些储蓄流经的金融系统本身就资本不足。家庭负债在2000年已接近收入的100%，2007年则增至133%。而面对债务破产，银行和家庭要平衡各自的资产负债表，这一过程往往要花费数年时间。

尽管如此，在过去的三年中，这一过程进展得并不慢。根据我们的房价指数，如今美国的房价低于公允价值19%，位列全球房价格最被低估的国家之中。不同于欧洲，美国财政部和和其他监管机构选择快速采取行动，直面金融系统的弊病。因此美国各银行勾销债务与提高资产净值的步伐必须快于欧洲。（其中仅花旗一家银行就注销了1430亿美元的坏账，而没有任何一家欧元区银行注销过超过300亿的坏账。）美国银行资本充足率高居世界前列。消费者也在削减开支，如今家庭债务收入比已降至114%。

脱胎换骨过程中也发现了一些新的经济增长点，其中就包括更加强劲的出口部门。借助于美元的疲软，贸易逆差从2006年占GDP比重的6%降至今天的4%。其他变化带来的影响则更为深远——尤其是新兴市场消费阶层的壮大——这都是好兆头。在总统竞选说辞中，经常可以听到两党指责中国操纵汇率，违反世贸规则出口廉价商品（见Lexington）。不过日益富裕的中国已经成为美国第三大出口市场，美国对中国出口额自2007年以来上升了53%。

并且美国的出口目录也正在发生变化，波音客机，微软软件和好莱坞电影等产品固然耳熟能详，但高附加值服务（建筑、工程和金融）的出口额也在迅速增长，―应用程序经济‖亦是如此，该―经济‖由脸谱、苹果公司和谷歌培育而成，从业人员超过30万。他们开发出来的游戏和虚拟商品等等在海外市场热销。受本国和欧洲市场颓势的影响，甚至一些小企业都想在新兴市场上寻找落足点。美国的制造商正在夺回被进口产品侵占的市场，并引领3D 打印等新的制造工艺。

同时，美国的传统弱势产业也转变为相对优势产业。对进口石油的依赖性让美国付出了很大代价。只要西德克萨斯中质油每桶价格超过100美元（2008年就是这种情况，去年和

今年也一样），美国的经济增长就会受到制约。不过较高的价格也在起积极作用，它可以减少需求并刺激供给。今年美国的石油净进口量将降至1995年以来的最低水平，并且美国终将成为天然气的净出口国。

很多国家都蕴藏有页岩气资源，不过同因特网革命一样，美国也带头开采页岩气（见本期特别报道）。联邦政府为开采页岩气的―水力压裂‖技术提供资金支持，就像当年资助开发因特网的先驱一样。不过页岩气的商业化是通过德克萨斯州一个名叫George Mitchell的―野猫‖钻井者（美国不乏这样乐于冒险的人）实现的。而欧洲页岩气的开采却受相关环保法规和财产权的制约。美国页岩气的使用降低了消费者的能源支出，同时也取代了部分煤炭使用，减少了碳排放量。将来，这会刺激任何高能耗产品的制造。

美国人要做的还远不止这些。尽管改革成果愈发明朗，但也会留下很多待解决的问题。比如在经济复苏中发挥重要作用的公司效率极高，他们给的员工工资丰厚，但用工少。这不但不会帮助减少失业，还会拉大收入差距。与昔日之美国不同，今天美国经济发展的基础更加均衡、更具可持续性。而且与缺乏改革、死气沉沉的欧洲相比，美国经济发展的平台更加广阔。

下一任总统应该怎样增强经济实力呢？首先，他不能让现状变得更糟，不能让美国的经济陷入财政危局。相反地，他应该选择一个可靠的长期债务计划，包括对福利项目增税和减税。也有人提出不少欠火候的建议，部分民主党议员想通过限制天然气出口来降低国内天然气价格——一个会打消国内投资和扩大产量积极性的―好点子‖。为了顺利当选，奥巴马需要更多魄力，加快实现天然气出口的进程。至于罗姆尼，他应该放弃将中国视作货币操纵者的承诺，以免招致贸易战。

其次，下任总统应该改善行将瓦解的公共服务。公路破旧不堪，医疗费用世界排名第一，公立学校教学质量不佳，还有拜占庭式的移民制度将世界上最优秀的人才当在国外，使之无法为美国公司效力。受这些条件的制约，即便效率再高的新兴公司也不能在经济恢复中大显身手。奥巴马总统、罗姆尼先生，请在公共服务上多花点心思吧，私营部门自会给你们带来惊喜。

5. Quantitative easing: QE, or not QE? 要不要量化宽松?

导读：在常规货币政策威力殆尽之时，量化宽松日益成为各大央行应对危机、刺激经济的选择，全球四大央行（美联储、英格兰银行、日本央行、欧洲央行）均已推出或酝酿推出新的

量化宽松计划，本文详细剖析了量化宽松的利与弊，有助于读者对量化宽松及其对经济的影响有一个更为全面和深刻的认识。

An assessment of the most controversial weapon in the central banker’s armoury

对央行决策者的军械库中最具争议的武器做出的一份评估

Jul 14th 2012 | WASHINGTON, DC | from the print edition

THE conventional arms have run out. Central banks in America and Britain have long since pushed interest rates to close to zero. On July 5th the European Central Bank (ECB) joined them, slashing its rate on deposits to 0% and its main policy rate below 1%. A different sort of arsenal is now being deployed. Unconventional monetary policy covers everything from negative interest rates—now on offer in Denmark—to a change in inflation targets, but ―quantitative easing‖ (QE), the creation of money to buy assets, has proved to be the most popular weapon of this crisis.

Its use is being stepped up. On July 5th the Bank of England (BoE) announced a ￡50 billion ($78 billion) increase in the size of its asset-purchase programme, to ￡375 billion in total. Speculation is growing that the Federal Reserve may launch another round of QE, its third, perhaps as soon as next month. There is pressure on the ECB to follow suit. With QE increasingly pivotal to monetary policy, how much bang for the buck (or yen or euro) does it deliver?

First, some definitions. In normal times central banks move short-term interest rates via ―open-market operations‖: by buying or selling securities, they supply or subtract reserves from the banking system. The quantity of reserves that banks hold is a secondary consideration; the real target is the interest rate. A lower rate, for example, encourages spending and investment, boosting the economy.

In times of severe economic distress, however, rates may fall to zero. Cue QE. When the Bank of Japan (BoJ) pioneered QE in 2001, its goal was to buy enough securities to create a desired quantity of reserves (hence, ―quantitative easing‖). Its actions, it hoped, would raise asset prices and end deflation.

QE has now come to refer to several flavours of asset-purchase programme. One version is often called ―credit easing‖. The aim is to support the economy by boosting liquidity and reducing interest rates when credit channels are clogged. The Fed’s purchases of mo rtgage-backed securities, demand for which weakened sharply during the financial crisis, fall into this category.

Another type of asset purchase aims to boost the economy without creating new money. The Fed’s ongoing ―Operation Twist‖ is an example: th e Fed sells short-term debt and uses the proceeds to buy long-term debt. Giving investors cash for long-term debt should prompt them to invest more money in other assets.

QE proper is a third type. The most straightforward way this is meant to help the economy is through ―portfolio rebalancing‖. The investors who sell securities to the central bank then take the proceeds and buy other assets, raising their prices. Lower bond yields encourage borrowing; higher equity prices raise consumption; both help investment and boost demand. To the extent that investors add foreign assets, portfolio rebalancing also weakens the domestic currency, fuelling exports.

If a central bank is expected to hold on to the government debt it buys, then QE can also support the economy by cutting government-borrowing costs and reducing the future burden of taxation. It can work by changing expectations, too. A promise to keep short-term interest rates low for a long time may be more credible if it is accompanied by QE, since the central bank is exposing itself through its holdings to the risk of a rise in interest rates.

That’s the theory, at any rate. Efforts to divine the actual results of these interventions are necessarily messy. Unconventional monetary tools were only rarely used before the crisis, which means the sample size of case studies is small. And events stubbornly refuse to pause in the immediate wake of new QE, making it hard for economists to isolate its impact.

参考译文：

常规武器已经耗尽。美国和英国央行将利率维持在近零水平已经很长时间了。7月5日，欧洲央行也加入到这一行列中来，将存款利率下调至0%，同时将主要政策利率下调至1%以下。一个不同种类的军械库中的各种武器正在部署当中。非常规货币政策有若干种，从负利率（如现在的丹麦）到通胀目标的调整。但是事实证明，―量化宽松‖（即增印货币购买资产）是应对此次危机中最常使用的武器。

使用量化宽松的力度正在加强。7月5日，英格兰银行宣布将其资产购买计划规模增加500亿英镑（约合780亿美元），总规模至3750亿英镑。对美联储可能最快于下月推出新一轮量化宽松（第三轮）的猜测也在增加。欧洲央行也面临着采取同样举措的压力。量化宽松在货币政策中变得日益重要，那么它能产生多大的效果呢？

首先，介绍一些定义。在正常时期，央行会通过―公开市场操作‖来调整短期利率：即通过购买或出售证券，增加或缩减银行系统的准备金。调整银行持有的准备金的数量倒是次要的考虑，这样做的真正目的是调整利率。例如，降低利率可以鼓励支出和投资，促进经济增长。

然而，在经济处于严重困境的时期，利率可能会降至零水平。这就意味着需要采取量化宽松（来刺激经济了）。日本央行于2001年率先推出量化宽松，其目的是购买足够的证券，使准备金的数量增至理想水平（因而叫做―量化宽松‖）。日本央行希望这些举措能够提高资产价格，消除通货紧缩。

量化宽松现在是指几种不同种类的资产购买计划。其中一种通常叫做―信贷宽松‖。其目的是在信贷渠道受阻时，通过增加流动性和降低利率来支撑经济发展。美联储购买的按揭证券（金融危机期间需求量骤减）就属于这种。

另一种资产购买是在不增印新的货币的情况下达到促进经济增长的目的。美联储正在进行的―扭转操作‖就是一个例子：即卖出短期国债，同时用相应的收入买入长期国债。此举使长期国债持有者有了更多的资金，这应该会促使他们将其投入到其它资产中去。

严格意义上的量化宽松应该是第三种。通过―投资组合的再平衡‖达到救助经济的目的是最简单的方式。投资者将证券出售给央行，然后用相应的收入买入其它资产，提高资产价格。降低债券收益率能够鼓励借贷；提高股票价格能够增加消费；两种措施都能够助推投资，刺激需求。就投资者增加国外资产来说，投资组合的再平衡同样会使国内货币走软，提振出口。

如果央行有望长期持有其购买的政府债券，那么量化宽松同样可以通过降低政府借贷成本以及降低未来税收负担来支撑经济发展。它还可以通过改变预期达到效果。如果在承诺将短期利率长期维持在低位水平的同时伴随实施量化宽松，那么这一承诺可能会更可靠一些，因为央行通过持有国债将自己置于利率上涨的风险之中。

无论如何，这是从理论上讲的。对这些介入措施的实际结果进行预测势必会很复杂。在此次危机之前，非常规货币工具很少被使用，这意味着案例分析的样本规模很小。而且在紧接着推出量化宽松之后，肯定还会有新的状况接踵而至，这使得经济学家们很难将量化宽松的影响孤立出来。

6. The long fight 漫长的战斗

导读：本周美国总统竞选罗姆尼受到了多方责难。作者认为大选形式尚未明朗化的同时，

也呼吁选民将焦点转移至更为重要的经济问题上。

This week it is Mitt Romney’s taxes; next week, the focus may return to the dismal economy 本周热点是罗姆尼的税单，下周呢？焦点可能会回到低迷不振的经济上

Jul 21st 2012 | from the print edition

THE presidential election is over 100 days away. At this stage in past races, John Kerry had a slight edge over George W. Bush, Michael Dukakis was streets ahead of George Bush senior and Richard Nixon was comfortably leading John Kennedy. The notion that the presidency might be settled as early as July is, on first principles, suspect.

What is more, the current race is as close as a summer’s afternoon on the banks of the Potomac. Although most polls show Barack Obama pipping Mitt Romney, his advantage tends to be within the margin of error. Much the same is true of the (less reliable) polls of swing states: Mr Obama appears to be in the lead in Florida, Ohio and Virginia, the states that will probably decide the election. But the president’s advantage is so vanishingly slight that it would be foolhardy to read much into it, especially given his poor marks in the same polls for his handling of the economy.

Nonetheless, a growing chorus seems to be suggesting that Mr Romney is somehow losing his purchase on the race. A series of Republican grandees have publicly questioned his tactics. The Wall Street Journal believes that the Romney campaign is ―slowly squandering an historic opportunity‖. Its owner, Rupert Murdoch, was more blunt, advising Mr Romney via Twitter to sack his campaign team and hire ―some real pros‖.

It is true that Mr Romney’s team has somehow allowed the coverage of the race over the past two weeks to focus almost exclusively on the minutiae of his personal finances and past employment. A casual reader of the American press would assume that voters’ primary concern is the extent to which Mr Romney kept tabs on things at Bain Capital, a private-equity firm that he had founded, after he took a leave of absence in 1999 to run the Salt Lake City winter Olympics. The second most pressing topic app ears to be Mr Romney’s failure to release more than two years’ worth of tax returns. Talk of the enfeebled state of the economy, which reminds voters of Mr Obama’s failings, has been scarcer, despite disappointing jobs numbers and other gloomy data.

Mr Romney’s critics on the right fear that all this less-than-flattering coverage,

less-than-convincingly disputed by his campaign, will somehow cement in voter’s minds an image of the candidate as a gold-plated villain who earned his millions by exploiting the little guy and avoiding the taxman. Many invoke the cautionary tale of Mr Kerry, the Democratic nominee in 2004, who found his supposed strength as a war hero turned into a liability by ads suggesting he had lied about his conduct in Vietnam. Mr Kerry duly lost by a whisker to a relatively unpopular incumbent being pilloried for his handling of two wars.

The Obama campaign is trying hard to repeat this scenario. It and its surrogates have spent millions on advertising in swing states, casting aspers ions on Mr Romney’s conduct as an investor, raising questions about his finances and generally impugning his character. The intention is to undermine the premise of his campaign—that his success as a businessman would make him a good steward of the economy. In one such television spot released this week, a solemn narrator intones: ―Tax havens, offshore accounts, carried interest—Mitt Romney has used every trick in the book. Romney admits that over the last two years he’s paid less than 15% in taxes on $43m in income. Makes you wonder if some years he paid any taxes at all. We don’t know because Romney has released just one full year of his tax returns …What is Mitt Romney hiding?‖Attacks such as these may be bearing some fruit. At any rate, negative views of Mr Romney have been on the increase for several months now among independents. The trend is especially pronounced in the swing states where the Obama camp is concentrating its efforts, points out Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster. Mr Romney cannot win the presidency without winning some of these voters over. So far, he is struggling.

参考译文：

距离总统大选如今只有100多天的时间了。在历史上的大选年七月底时曾有过这样的情况：约翰·克里（John Kerry）略胜小布什（George W. Bush），迈克尔·杜卡基斯（Michael Dukakis）遥遥领先老布什（George Bush senior），理查德·尼克松（Richard Nixon）面对约翰·肯尼迪（John Kennedy）拥有相当优势。所以，要说总统大选七月份就大局已定未免有些为时尚早。

此外，今年的选战如今就像夏季午后的波托马克河畔一样火热[注1]。虽然大多数民调显示巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）领先于米特·罗姆尼（Mitt Romney），但奥巴马的领先优势大多极微弱，与其说是其占有优势，该领先更可能是因为数字统计误差所造成的。摇摆州民调（可靠度相对较低）也有相同的趋势：奥巴马似乎在佛罗里达、俄亥俄以及弗吉尼亚

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